Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election signals significant shifts in global trade. Known for his “America First” strategy, Trump prioritises domestic manufacturing and protectionism, with plans for sweeping import tariffs and corporate tax reductions in the U.S. Such policies could deeply impact trade with key partners, including Vietnam, one of the United States’ primary import sources for electronics, textiles, and agricultural products.

This article explores the potential effects of Trump’s 2025 policies on Vietnam’s export market and strategic adaptations for Vietnamese businesses.

A Look Back: Vietnam’s Export Growth During Trump’s First Term (2016–2020)

During Trump’s presidency, his tariffs on Chinese goods inadvertently benefited Vietnam, as companies sought alternative manufacturing hubs to reduce costs. Vietnam’s competitive labour market, proximity to China, and improving infrastructure made it an ideal choice for multinational corporations looking to diversify their supply chains. Major companies, such as Samsung and Nike, invested heavily in Vietnam, particularly in the electronics and textile sectors, driving a surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) and boosting Vietnam’s exports.

This influx of investment positioned Vietnam as a key player in global supply chains, contributing to its rapid economic growth and making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia. The tariffs on Chinese products allowed Vietnam to expand its role in the global market, setting the stage for further growth and deeper integration into international trade.

Trump’s New Import Tariffs: Limited Impact on Vietnam Compared to China

In his latest campaign, Donald Trump announced potential tariffs if re-elected: a substantial 60% tax on Chinese imports and a 20-30% tax on goods from other countries. This move, while aimed at appealing to working-class voters with promises of job creation, is widely seen by analysts, including those at VinaCapital, as a negotiation tactic with a low likelihood of full implementation.

If these tariffs were to take effect, Vietnam’s export sectors—especially electronics and textiles—might experience some impact. However, due to Vietnam’s competitive production costs, the effect is expected to be less severe compared to China. With the U.S. primarily focused on reducing reliance on Chinese imports, Vietnamese goods could emerge as a viable alternative in the American market. This shift could allow Vietnam to retain or even expand its market share in sectors previously dominated by China, positioning it as a key player amidst trade tensions.

Interestingly, Trump’s own corporation has already made significant investments in Vietnam, signalling the potential for closer U.S.-Vietnam relations in the future. His company’s ventures in the region not only benefit the broader U.S. economic interests but could also serve as a strategic gain for his family, given the potential for increased business opportunities. This could signal further diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Vietnam, creating new trade and investment opportunities for Vietnamese exporters. With Trump’s personal financial stakes in the region, Vietnam may stand to gain even more, potentially bypassing some of the negative effects of the proposed tariffs as U.S. policy gravitates toward strengthening economic ties with the country.

Key Vietnamese Industries and U.S. Trade Relations

Vietnam has become a key manufacturing hub in Asia as companies shift away from China due to rising labour costs and trade tensions. With competitive labour costs, a skilled workforce, and reliable infrastructure, Vietnam has solidified its position in global supply chains. Its extensive logistics network and advanced manufacturing base further strengthen its role.

International trade agreements, including the CPTPP and EVFTA, drive Vietnam’s success by offering tariff-free access to major markets. These agreements enhance exports and make Vietnam an attractive alternative to China, particularly in sectors like electronics, textiles, and footwear, crucial to U.S.-Vietnam trade relations.

Textiles and Apparel

Vietnam’s textile sector is strongly connected to the U.S. market, and any tariff adjustments could have a slight impact on demand. However, Vietnamese manufacturers may still benefit from their competitive pricing, especially as they provide a tariff-free alternative to Chinese textiles.

Electronics

Vietnam’s electronics industry, bolstered by major investors such as Samsung, is well-positioned to adapt. As the U.S. continues reducing its reliance on China for tech manufacturing, Vietnam could expand its share in the electronics sector without facing substantial tariffs.

Agriculture

Agricultural exports such as seafood and coffee may experience modest challenges if tariffs impact pricing. However, the high quality and niche appeal of Vietnamese agricultural products give them an edge, and expanding into additional markets could further mitigate risks.

Strategies for Vietnamese Exporters in Trump’s Next Four Years

Given the potential for more protectionist trade measures under Trump, Vietnamese exporters must proactively adopt strategies to maintain and grow their market share in the U.S. and other international markets.

By diversifying their approach and adapting to the shifting landscape, Vietnamese businesses can mitigate the impact of any tariffs or trade disruptions. Key strategies include:

Market Diversification

As the U.S. market continues to be influenced by trade policies, Vietnam’s exporters should look to diversify their markets by expanding exports to regions such as ASEAN, Europe, and the Middle East.

This strategy will help reduce dependency on the U.S., offering stability and mitigating risks associated with potential trade disruptions. Vietnam’s participation in global agreements, like the CPTPP, provides significant opportunities for these regions, further positioning the country as a vital part of the global supply chain.

Expansion of Trade Partnerships

Vietnam is already benefiting from key trade agreements such as the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which provide enhanced market access to Europe and Asia.

Under Trump’s re-election, these agreements will become even more crucial, as the U.S. seeks stable and diversified trade partners. Vietnam’s growing role in multilateral trade pacts is likely to strengthen its economic ties with the U.S., thus increasing its significance in global supply chains.

Enhancing Production Efficiency

As Trump’s tariffs continue to reshape global trade, Vietnam is increasingly viewed as a reliable manufacturing hub. To maintain its competitive edge, Vietnamese businesses must invest in advanced technology, automation, and improved logistics. These investments will help reduce production costs, improve efficiency, and keep prices attractive for U.S. buyers.

Technological advancements such as robotics and AI can help streamline production processes, while automation can improve supply chain resilience. Vietnam’s focus on improving logistics and infrastructure will make it an even more attractive destination for U.S. and international companies seeking reliable, low-cost production alternatives.

Supporting Growth with Platforms Like VALO

As Vietnam’s export market grows, platforms like VALO will play a key role in helping businesses navigate shifting trade dynamics. VALO offers a streamlined and transparent sourcing process by connecting international buyers directly with trusted Vietnamese suppliers. This platform supports Vietnam’s role in global supply chains by providing companies with the tools to easily access production capacity and new trade opportunities.

As Vietnam’s manufacturing sector expands due to the impact of Trump’s policies, platforms like VALO will become increasingly important in connecting exporters with global markets. They will enable businesses to tap into Vietnam’s growing manufacturing base and streamline the sourcing process, ensuring that Vietnam remains an essential link in the global supply chain.

A Bright Future for Vietnam’s Export Market

With Donald Trump’s re-election, significant shifts in U.S. trade policy are expected to shape global markets, including Vietnam’s export sector. As U.S.-China tensions persist, Vietnam’s competitive labour market and strategic location make it a prime alternative for multinational companies looking to reduce reliance on China. This shift positions Vietnam to expand its role in global supply chains, especially in electronics, textiles, and agriculture.

Vietnamese exporters can mitigate potential trade disruptions by diversifying into markets like ASEAN, Europe, and the Middle East, supported by trade agreements such as CPTPP and EVFTA. Additionally, investing in technology, automation, and logistics will ensure continued competitiveness.

Platforms like VALO will play a key role in helping Vietnamese businesses connect with global buyers, facilitating streamlined sourcing and supporting export growth. By adapting to the changing trade environment, Vietnam can continue to thrive in the global market despite ongoing challenges.

For more information on how to navigate these trade dynamics and boost your business’s success, reach out to VALO today.